And what will happen in 40 years? Biometric security system

04.04.2020

In the forecast economic development Russia until 2050, prepared by experts as part of the research subprogram of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Comprehensive system analysis and modeling of global dynamics”, it is said that the level of well-being in Russia is now 23% of the standard of living in rich countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

By 2050, this figure could rise to 60%, provided that the country's economy modernizes and ceases to be resource-dependent. If structural changes in the economy do not occur and exports remain mainly focused on raw materials, then in 40 years the comparable standard of living in the country will roll back to the values of the 1990s (18% of the level of OECD countries). Currently, the Russian economy is resource-dependent, and its structure is unbalanced: the economic stability of the state is ensured by mining. The share of hydrocarbons and metals in total exports is 70% in dollar equivalent. At the same time, 2% of the working population is employed in the oil production sector. In the long term, the standard of living in the country will largely depend on the degree of resource dependence and the success of modernization. Based on the current structural state of the economy, experts have proposed three development scenarios: optimistic - “Russia is on its way to the OECD”; resource - “Russia is a resource power”; and pessimistic - “Russia is the periphery of the world.”

According to the optimistic scenario, the country's economy diversifies. The share of energy resource-extracting industries will decrease, while at the same time the shares of other industries in exports will increase. In this case, modernization will occur relatively evenly across sectors. True, resource dependence can only be overcome through targeted actions to diversify and integrate the economy into the global economy, the study emphasizes.

According to the optimistic scenario, labor productivity in Russia will reach 85% of productivity in OECD countries by 2050; the maximum rate of productivity growth will be observed in the 2020s - 2030s. As for the general well-being of the population, by 2050 the standard of living will increase to 60% of the level of OECD countries. The growth in living standards could have been higher if not for the significant decline in the share of the working-age population due to the “demographic hole” of the 1990s. The current (as of 2010) level of well-being in developed countries can be achieved by Russia by 2035.

True, by this time the welfare of the OECD countries themselves will increase by 63%. The second development option is called by experts “Russia is a resource power.” In this scenario, there will be no structural changes in the economy, and, accordingly, exports will remain predominantly resource-based. It is also assumed that oil (as reserves are depleted) will replace some other resource (for example, gas). In this scenario, only the extractive sector (and directly related industries) will have access to the international level. The remaining sectors will “catch up” to the level of the resource sector, which will completely determine the upper level of modernization development.

It must be taken into account that the population employed in the field of resource extraction constitutes a small proportion of the total population and will not increase. If this scenario is implemented, Russia as a whole will not be able to reach the current level of well-being in OECD countries even in 40 years. By 2050, the prosperity of citizens will be seriously affected by the “demographic rollback” (the retirement of the largest generation born in the 1980s). This phenomenon will reduce welfare levels from 30% (achieved by 2035) to 25% of the level of rich OECD countries in 2050. The country will continue to supply resources to developed countries, receiving high-tech products in exchange.

Nevertheless, this scenario requires major modernization of the mining industry and investment in both mineral exploration and resource synthesis research - i.e. in fundamental and engineering science. To fulfill this scenario, consistent, well-coordinated actions are required from the country's leadership and resource companies to update equipment and maintain high labor productivity in the mining industry. If labor productivity in mining begins to decline, the pessimistic scenario will be realized: “Russia is the periphery of the world.” The structure of the economy does not change.

The resource extraction industry remains focused on oil and is not restructuring. According to British Petrolium estimates, there are 27 years of oil reserves left in Russia (at current production levels), experts say. After the oil reserves are exhausted, stagnation will begin in the country. “At the same time, all sectors of the economy are impoverished with the exception of mining, finance and trade. Due to poor integration into international financial system and the market economy with its current structure will return the country to the relative standard of living of the 1990s,” the article says. As in all previous scenarios, Russia after 2040 will seriously suffer from a “demographic rollback.”

It can be assumed that a drop in living standards will lead to increased mortality and a decrease in the older population, the study notes. According to this inertial scenario, Russia will most likely not maintain the development indicators achieved by 2010 and will slide to the level of 15-20% of developed countries, which in percentage terms corresponds to the level of countries of the global periphery. In the proposed scenarios, it is believed that no man-made or social disasters will occur, economists explain. However, these factors cannot be excluded. As experts note, according to Rosstat, about half of the equipment is worn out, on average 20% of the equipment is beyond its service life. Cities with a single city-forming enterprise that is below the threshold of profitability can become hotbeds of social tension, reports Finmarket.

Experts predict that crickets, genetically engineered tomatoes and lab-grown meat could soon find their way onto our dinner tables.
In the next 40 years, the demand for food will double, predicts WHO (World Health Organization). But there are fewer and fewer free areas in which to grow food. A rapidly growing population and its increasing wealth are fueling growing demand. According to forecasts, the most difficult thing will be the production of the required amount of meat.
Human demand for meat will double by 2050. With nearly 70% of the planet's farmland already devoted to livestock farming, rising demand will cause prices to soar. Henning Steinfeld of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said beef would be the "caviar of the future."
In addition, the production of current burgers and steaks is very harmful environment. Livestock production produces 39% of all methane emissions and 5% of carbon dioxide. “This is not environmentally sustainable,” says Professor Mark Post, a physiologist at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. “We need to look for alternatives.”
Mark Post is one of those who is busy finding ways to prevent a food crisis using science. In the future, his work may lead to meat being grown in laboratories.
Other solutions are no less radical. As shown in Can Eating Insects Save the World? (Sup Eating Insects Save The World?) with Stefan Gates, which recently aired on BBC 4, many experts predict that insects will slowly begin to seep into the menu of European cuisine. Moreover, original technologies are now being developed that will make it possible to grow fruits and vegetables in deserts.
In this material we will try to tell how scientists propose to combat the food crisis. Which of the proposed solutions will appeal to you most?

Given the growing demand for meat, it is unclear how the carnivores of the future will find their lunch. Will they be able to switch to grasshoppers (“tacos” or “this” - Spanish takos - hot tortillas with filling, a traditional Mexican dish. - Ed.), caramelized locusts or vegetable soup with meat of mealworms? Some scientists believe that entomophagy (eating insects) will play a role important role in providing for humanity alternative sources squirrel.
“Raising insects is much more efficient than more traditional animal husbandry,” says Professor Arnold van Huis from Wageningen University in the Netherlands, “because they are cold-blooded and do not need to expend energy to maintain body temperature.” Crickets, for example, produce a kilogram of edible material from just 2.1 kg of food.
For poultry this figure increases to 4.5 kg, for pigs to 9.1 kg and to 25 kg for cattle. There are also environmental benefits. Livestock contributes 18% of non-natural greenhouse gases: the production of each kilogram of beef costs the atmosphere approximately 2.85 kg of greenhouse gases. According to a 2010 study, these values are 8 and 2 g for mealworms and house crickets, respectively.
Providing a diet of insects will not be a problem. So a group from Wageningen University began studying public opinion, which will most likely prove to be the main obstacle to such a menu getting to the plate. The group conducts tastings to determine whether participants would be willing to eat insects and how—whole, ground, or simply extract the protein. “Nine out of ten subjects liked insect meatballs more than meat ones,” says van Heijs. “This is how insect proteins need to be masked.”
But overcoming an aversion to six-legged food will require a lot of effort. So far, Florida-based Organic Nutrition Industries aims to produce 1,000 tons of dried, ground black soldier fly per year as an agricultural feed. So insects will become more common food for animals whose meat we are accustomed to eating, and not for ourselves. On the way to us starting to eat them, except psychological problems, there are also technical ones. Thus, some of the proteins found in edible insects are the same as those found in dust mites, which cause asthma in humans.
However, van Heys says that one famous British chef has already contacted him - they were interested in a book of insect recipes that Heys co-authored.

5 most edible insects

GRASSHOPPERS. They are eaten in China, the Middle East and many African countries. Fried with garlic and lime juice in Mexico and candied in Japan.
CATERPILLARS. Very popular in South and Central Africa— they are given to children in the form of a crushed paste to compensate for insufficient nutrition.
BEL0ST0MATIDS. Popular in Thailand, where they are boiled, steamed, deep-fried, and added to salads and chili pastes. They say they can taste like bubble gum, gummy candy, or oysters.
TAILOR ANTS. Highly prized as a delicacy in parts of Southeast Asia, where they are fried with onions and capsicums, lime and spices and served with sticky rice. Sometimes pounded to make salsa.
SILKWORMS. Crispy on the outside and sweet on the inside, in Thailand they are eaten whole and fried in kaffir lime leaves. Pupusas are popular as a street snack in Korea.

Artificial meat

TEST TUBE BURGERS, lab-grown steaks, bioengineered beef pies... It looks like we're on the threshold of the era of artificial meat. Last year, Professor Mark Post from Maastricht University introduced the first artificial burger.
At a price of 250 thousand euros per serving, these high-tech treats are, of course, still far from being commercialized. But the professor predicts they will quickly become available as the challenges of rising global demand for meat worsen.
Post's famous burger was grown from bovine stem cells obtained by biopsy in a medium containing fetal calf serum—essentially blood with the red blood cells removed. The serum contained the nutrition needed for the cells to grow into mature muscle cells.
The resulting muscle fibers are stretched between two Velcro clamps so that their innate tendency to contract turns them into strips of meat (muscle training occurs, just like what we do in the gym!). Electrical impulses were passed through the muscles to increase protein content. The three thousand resulting small pieces of meat were then combined to create one standard-sized burger.
Post's group is just one of many laboratories working on meat bioengineering. US startup Modern Meadows, launched by Professor Gabor Forgacs and his son Andras, is using 3D printing to produce living tissue, with plans to eventually create both artificial meat and artificial organs.
In this case, thousands of living muscle stem cells are loaded into a cartridge like biological ink. After printed required form, cells naturally join together to form living tissue. Father and son describe the taste of their latest product as "not unpleasant" but admit it's still a long way from perfection.

Alternative meat

Can't wait for faux meat? Try this one for now
OSTRICH. This bird produces meat with the same protein and iron content as beef. It contains only 0.5% fat - less than half of what is found in chicken breast. Ostriches give birth to 30 to 60 chicks per year for 40 years, making them very productive poultry.
DEER. Thanks to widespread 'Bambi syndrome', Britain's deer population is spiraling out of control. Scientists from the University of East Anglia (UK), who recently published the results of a survey of the deer population, believe that it is necessary to kill about 750 thousand deer a year to control their numbers. “It's pest control, but it will also get venison on family tables,” said Dr. Paul Dolman, who led the study.
HORSE. So far, the public has a bad attitude towards horse meat burgers. But they may be a healthier choice. Horse meat is not as fatty as beef, pork and lamb. In addition, work published this year by nutritionists from the University of Milan in Italy found that people who regularly eat horse meat have higher levels of iron and healthy omega-3 fatty acids in their blood and lower cholesterol levels than the control group.
Although horses are inferior to livestock in converting grass and grain into meat, they are work animals and their meat is a bonus by-product.

Fruits and vegetables

IN GLOBAL staple food production, potatoes rank fourth after corn, wheat and rice, with an annual production of about 314 million tons. When counted by output, the humble tuber easily comes out on top, producing six times more tons per hectare than wheat. But there is also a serious stumbling block - potato diseases.
The fungus-like organism Phytophthora infestans, which caused famine in Ireland in the 1840s, continues to destroy crops today. Last year, up to 20% of the European potato crop was lost due to this disease. Many farmers are forced to water their crops with fungicides 15-20 times, spending about 500 euros per hectare.
Scientists from the British Sainsbury laboratory (Sainsbury is a famous British chain of food supermarkets) are working on a cheaper and more radical solution.
Near Norwich ( main city Norfolk, UK) grows potatoes genetically modified to be resistant to late blight. The project is led by Professor Jonathan Jones. After sifting through hundreds of variants, his team isolated the genes that made two unedible potato varieties resistant to the disease. South America. Early results indicate that adding these genes from inedible potatoes to the genome of edible potatoes may successfully transfer resistance to them.
Genetic modification can improve not only the resistance of crops to diseases, but also their medicinal properties. Professor Cathie Martin from the center. John Innes in Norwich developed a variety of purple tomatoes with high level content of anthocyanin pigment in the pulp and peel. These compounds are commonly found in berries such as blackberries and blueberries and appear to offer protection against some types of cancer, heart disease and dementia.
Tomatoes are eaten everywhere and may well provide medicine to those who do not have access to the seasonal berries. “One or two tomatoes are equivalent in the amount of anthocyanin to a basket of berries,” explains Professor Martin. In another study on mice, a diet supplemented with purple tomatoes increased lifespan by almost a third.
“It's not easy to accept any food that's a new color,” says Martin, referring to the unfortunate history of green ketchup (the color purple doesn't look very edible). But scientists hope consumers will embrace purple tomatoes as they do colored lettuce.

GREENHOUSES CAPTURE heat from the sun and store it to protect plants from the cold. But why are they in the desert? British inventor Charlie Paton turned the greenhouse idea on its head to enable farmers in dry, hot regions of the world to grow fruits, vegetables and herbs. The most unusual thing is that the water for irrigation comes from the sea. “The potential for growing food is almost unlimited,” says Payton. “We can grow tomatoes, lettuce and cucumbers in places like Oman or the UAE where it would otherwise not be possible.”
For the process to be effective, air must constantly flow through the greenhouse. This requires fans somewhere. The technology is effective on the sea coast and in dry hot deserts, as in North Africa, in the Middle East, Mexico and China. Energy for fans can be generated using solar panels.
Trial greenhouses at sea water were built in Tenerife, Abu Dhabi and Oman. The most advanced project is in Port Augusta, 300 km north of Adelaide (Australia). Payton says tests in a 2,000 m2 greenhouse showed the process could produce the same 80 kg of tomatoes with square meter per year, the same as modern greenhouses in Holland. This year this site will be expanded 40 times.

DO YOU WANT TO GROW VEGETABLES? A new set of equipment allows everyone to become an amateur farmer. And even dirty soil is not needed if there is a SproutslO Microfarm - the plants grow in the nutritious mist that covers them.
Jennifer Broutin Farah, graduate student at the MIT Media Lab Institute of Technology, USA), who invented SproutslO, hopes that city residents will grow tomatoes and potatoes in this device.
In addition to replacing the soil with a nutrient mist (“aeroponic system”), SproutslO contains a set of sensors that collect data on temperature, humidity, acidity and light, and automatically adjusts settings to maintain the best conditions for plants. The data is fed into an app so urban farmers can monitor their eggplants from their phone or tablet while sitting at their desk a few kilometers from home.
“There are many benefits to growing plants in an aeroponic environment,” says Brutin Farah. - Requires 98% less water and 60% less fertilizer. Because the plant is indoors, you can harvest year-round.” She hopes that SproutslO will soon appear in apartments and houses: “We are at the prototype stage, but the system will be ready within a year.”

Rising oil prices have led to a boom in research into growing algae for fuel. But in the future we may use them for our own nutrition. In suburban Karratha, Western Australia, there are 6-acre (2.4 km2) ponds surrounded by 38 smaller satellite ponds. Aurora Algae, the site's owner, says this is what the farms of the future look like. Aurora Algae is a pioneer in green mud farming. Its employees are confident that the mud can help solve the food crisis of the future.
There are several arguments in favor of seaweed as a food source. With global water demand rising by 55% by 2050, as predicted by the OECD, fresh water and fertile soil will soon become scarce. Algae are rich in proteins, grow all year round, and can be harvested daily. And not only this. Algae also absorb climate pollutants carbon dioxide. They are already on the market as food products, albeit in a narrow niche, in the form of green pasta and energy bars.
Paul Brunato, Aurora's vice president, admits that "the mass market is probably not yet ready to accept 'whole' algae as a food source." The first commercial use of algae will likely be in blends of algae powder with other foods, including animal foods, to add nutritional value, including protein, essential omega-3 fatty acids and bicarbonates.
In six control ponds, Aurora is already producing 30 tons of dried kelp per acre, with 40 times the protein of soybeans, using 1% of the water volume required for soybeans. The company intends to launch commercial production by 2015 at a new site in Novy South Wales in 50 ponds covering 5 acres (2 km2).
Although algae grows quickly, it is not easy to grow on a commercial scale. They absorb much more light than they convert into chemical energy. This means that the top layers block the light needed by the layers below. After extensive testing, Aurora selected the filaments that absorb the least amount of light to allow them to grow dense layers in shallow ponds.

What happened to the tablet

IT SEEMES THAT in 2062 you won't have to worry about lunch - all the steaks, fried chicken and pizza will be contained in one tablet. But, contrary to the assumptions of many futurologists and science fiction writers, scientists have long rejected the idea of lunch in a tablet.
We face significant obstacles on the road to nutritional pills. The average man needs about 2500 kcal per day, women's norm is closer to 2000 kcal. Nutritionists recommend a number of options for combining different energy sources. For example, Brian Mackenzie, a British athletics coach, prefers a set of 57% carbohydrates, 30% fat and 13% protein. Fats, the most concentrated food source, contain about 9 kcal/g, while carbohydrates and proteins contain about 4 kcal/g.
Large tablets weigh about a gram, meaning the average man should consume 521 tablets and the average woman 417 tablets daily to meet basic energy needs. This layout does not include vitamins, minerals, or other key nutrients.
“To get enough of these and other nutrients in pill form, you would have to spend most of the day swallowing them,” says Marion Nestle, professor of nutrition, food studies and public health Paulette Goddard Chair at New York University. To overcome these problems, a radical breakthrough will be required.

So it's not surprising that instead of trying to make eating unnecessary, DAPRA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) funded other work to help soldiers go longer periods of time without food.
In 2004, DARPA offered grants under its Metabolic Dominance program. The program's policy document described the agency's desire to achieve "continuous peak physical fitness and cognitive function for three to five days, 24 hours a day, without the need for calories."
Among the ways to achieve this, according to DARPA, could be forcing a soldier's body to use its own metabolic fat reserves. So far, no such solutions have been developed... or at least no one talked about them.
Article by: Hannah Devlin and Nick Fleming

The standard of living in Russia is now about 23% of the standard of living in OECD countries. By 2050, this figure could rise to 60% if the Russian economy modernizes. If dependence on oil exports continues, the standard of living will fall back to 18% of OECD levels, experts predict
Moscow. April 2. FINMARKET.RU - The standard of living in the country is the economic indicator of most interest to citizens. Currently, the level of well-being in Russia is 23% of the standard of living in rich countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). By 2050, this figure could rise to 60%, provided that the country's economy modernizes and ceases to be resource-dependent. If structural changes in the economy do not occur and exports remain mainly focused on raw materials, then in 40 years the comparable standard of living in the country will roll back to the values of the 1990s (18% of the level of OECD countries).
Such assumptions are contained in the forecast of economic development of Russia until 2050, prepared by experts as part of the research subprogram of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Comprehensive system analysis and modeling of global dynamics.”
Currently, the Russian economy is resource-dependent, and its structure is unbalanced, experts say. In other words, the economic stability of the state is ensured by mining. The share of hydrocarbons and metals in total exports is 70% in dollar equivalent.
At the same time, 2% of the working population is employed in the oil production sector. In the long term, the standard of living in the country will largely depend on the degree of resource dependence and the success of modernization.
Based on the current structural state of the economy, experts have proposed three development scenarios: optimistic - “Russia is on its way to the OECD”; resource - “Russia is a resource power”; and pessimistic - “Russia is the periphery of the world.”
“The scenarios are designed to illustrate as clearly as possible the potential value of effective modernization, as well as the performance gap between a diversified economy and a resource-dependent one,” the study says.
So, according to the optimistic scenario (“Russia is on its way to the OECD”), the country’s economy is diversifying. The share of energy resource-extracting industries will decrease, while at the same time the shares of other industries in exports will increase. In this case, modernization will occur relatively evenly across sectors. True, resource dependence can only be overcome through targeted actions to diversify and integrate the economy into the global economy, the study emphasizes.
According to the optimistic scenario, labor productivity in Russia will reach 85% of productivity in OECD countries by 2050; the maximum rate of productivity growth will be observed in the 2020s - 2030s.
Russia must use the existing demographic dividend - the large generation born in the mid-1980s. In the late 2010s - early 2020s, this generation will pass the age of 30-40 years, which is the most receptive to innovation and integration processes. In fact, now the state must pursue, firstly, the most effective educational policy aimed at educating the cohort born in the late 80s, secondly, guarantee the possibility of integrating this generation into world processes, and thirdly, build a convenient support system families with children preschool age. If Russia fails to rely economically on those born in the 1980s, this will greatly affect the pace of integration and development. The next generation (those born in the 1990s) is twice as small and will have a harder time sustaining high growth rates for the entire country.
As for the general well-being of the population, by 2050 the standard of living will increase to 60% of the level of OECD countries. The growth in living standards could have been higher if not for the significant decline in the share of the working-age population due to the “demographic hole” of the 1990s.
The current (as of 2010) level of well-being in developed countries can be achieved by Russia by 2035. True, by this time the welfare of the OECD countries themselves will increase by 63%.
The second development option is called by experts “Russia is a resource power.” In this scenario, there will be no structural changes in the economy, and, accordingly, exports will remain predominantly resource-based. It is also assumed that oil (as reserves are depleted) will replace some other resource (for example, gas).
In this scenario, only the extractive sector (and directly related industries) will have access to the international level. The remaining sectors will “catch up” to the level of the resource sector, which will completely determine the upper level of modernization development.
It must be taken into account that the population employed in the field of resource extraction constitutes a small proportion of the total population and will not increase. If this scenario is implemented, Russia as a whole will not be able to reach the current level of well-being in OECD countries even in 40 years. By 2050, the prosperity of citizens will be seriously affected by the “demographic rollback” (the retirement of the largest generation born in the 1980s). This phenomenon will reduce welfare levels from 30% (achieved by 2035) to 25% of the level of rich OECD countries in 2050. The country will continue to supply resources to developed countries, receiving high-tech products in exchange. However, this scenario requires major modernization of the mining industry and investment in both mineral exploration and resource synthesis research - i.e. in fundamental and engineering science.
To fulfill this scenario, consistent, well-coordinated actions are required from the country's leadership and resource companies to update equipment and maintain high labor productivity in the mining industry.
If labor productivity in mining begins to decline, the pessimistic scenario will be realized: “Russia is the periphery of the world.”
The structure of the economy does not change. The resource extraction industry remains focused on oil and is not restructuring. According to British Petrolium estimates, there are 27 years of oil reserves left in Russia (at current production levels), experts say.
After the oil reserves are exhausted, stagnation will begin in the country. “At the same time, all sectors of the economy are impoverished with the exception of mining, finance and trade. Due to weak integration into the international financial system and market, the economy with the current structure will return the country to the relative standard of living of the 1990s,” the article says.
As in all previous scenarios, Russia after 2040 will seriously suffer from a “demographic rollback.” It can be assumed that a drop in living standards will lead to increased mortality and a decrease in the older population, the study notes. According to this inertial scenario, Russia will most likely not maintain the development indicators achieved by 2010 and will slide to the level of 15-20% of developed countries, which in percentage terms corresponds to the level of countries of the global periphery.
In the proposed scenarios, it is believed that no man-made or social disasters will occur, economists explain. However, these factors cannot be excluded. As experts note, according to Rosstat, about half of the equipment is worn out, on average 20% of the equipment is beyond its service life. Cities with a single city-forming enterprise that is beyond the threshold of profitability can become hotbeds of social tension.
One of the authors of the forecast, presenter Researcher Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies RAS Head. Department of the Russian State University for the Humanities, Professor Andrey Korotaev explained to Finmarket: “The mathematical modeling we carried out of the country’s development scenarios revealed the particular importance of the demographic factor. Effective, well-funded family policies can prevent the decline of the Russian labor force. Effective anti-alcohol and anti-tobacco policies combined with improved quality of work Russian system healthcare will lead to a noticeable increase in life expectancy, and therefore will support economic growth in our country.”
Mathematical modeling shows that a combination of effective economic and socio-demographic policies can bring Russian GDP to a level of about 10 trillion dollars by 2050 (i.e., the level of the modern United States), and therefore introduce Russia into the club of the world's leading economic powers.
At the same time, inertial demographic dynamics (i.e., maintaining current levels of fertility and mortality) will result in GDP that is almost half as large by 2050.
Finally, ineffective economic and demographic policies will turn Russia into a third-rate country by 2050, and GDP will be an order of magnitude lower than in the optimal scenario. This is precisely the potential cost of the decisions that now have to be made.
“There are trend and cyclical components in economic dynamics,” explains Artemy Malkov, director of Flexis, software products which was used by experts for calculations. - For example, China is now undergoing modernization and economic growth, similar to the rise of the Soviet economy in the 60s and 70s. This is a trend. Our country has already passed this stage once and now we do not have access to means such as mass literacy, relocation of labor from villages to cities and the construction of giant factories. However, this does not mean that Russia’s chances are lost. The presence of economic cycles and changes in technological structures makes it possible for dynamic countries to become leaders and rebuild the existing world order. The next five to seven years are the most critical for the modernization and diversification of the country’s economy; it is in the coming years that the foundations are laid for the innovative leadership of countries of the next technological order.”

01/11/2011

Data from Russian officials and foreign experts regarding the demographic prospects of our country vary greatly. While the former talk about population growth, those abroad are predicting Russia’s imminent demographic collapse, from which only an increase in the influx of migrants can save it.

IN Yesterday at the Carnegie Moscow Center, a report by scientists from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, “The Vanishing World Power,” was presented, according to which Russia’s population will decline faster than the most pessimistic official forecast suggests, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.

In 2010, there were about 140 million people in the Russian Federation. By 2030, according to scientists, the population of the Russian Federation will decrease by 15 million people. And by 2050, the population decline will be almost 20%. Thus, in 40 years the country will have no more than 116 million people and Russia will drop from its current ninth to 14th place in terms of population in the world.

The main reduction will occur among working-age citizens, who are the backbone of the economy. The main reasons for this are the high mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases, as well as from diseases and accidents associated with alcohol abuse. In addition, according to demographers, infectious diseases such as AIDS and tuberculosis play an important role.

At the same time, even a baby boom will not save the situation, and maybe even complicate it. The more children there are, the higher the state’s spending on the social sphere should be: on healthcare, on benefits, on education.

The sad trend will not be reversed by the increasing flow of migrants from year to year. Although the authors of the report pin their hopes on them, for example, to restore remote corners of the country with difficult living conditions.

However, according to Russian officials, the situation is not as dire as the Germans portrayed it. Rosstat previously published its forecasts for changes in the population of the Russian Federation by 2030. And the most negative forecast predicted a population decline of about 128 million people. According to the statistical service, the natural population decline in the first nine months of this year amounted to 124.7 thousand people.

On Monday, October 31, the head of the Ministry of Health and Social Development Tatyana Golikova reported that during the first autumn month the population in the country increased. “In September this year, for the second time in a row this year, natural population growth was registered - 4.2 thousand people,” she said.

Head of State Dmitry Medvedev also recently said that the situation is not cause for concern. “We have real population growth, and in a number of regions extinction has stopped,” the president said, crediting the maternity capital program for this. “I am not ashamed of maternal capital, I am filled with pride that we came up with this and implemented it,” he added.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said the same thing in September at the pre-election congress of United Russia members. “Demography is an indicator of the well-being of society and the effectiveness of the state. We have forced the demographic crisis, which threatened the very existence of Russia, to recede... We need to consolidate positive trends in demography and ensure a gradual increase in the country’s population,” he noted.

Pessimistic forecasts by foreign scientists have become a regular occurrence. For example, last week UN experts compiled a map of human extinction. Russia was in the top ten countries that will become empty earlier than others. The last girl in our country will be born in 30 generations, or in 804 years. And he will die, taking into account the average life expectancy in the country, in 2888 .

The forecast of economic development of Russia until 2050, prepared by experts as part of the research subprogram of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Comprehensive system analysis and modeling of global dynamics,” states that the level of well-being in Russia is now 23% of the standard of living in rich countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD), writes NR2

However, this scenario requires major modernization of the mining industry and investment in both mineral exploration and resource synthesis research - i.e. in fundamental and engineering science. To fulfill this scenario, consistent, well-coordinated actions are required from the country's leadership and resource companies to update equipment and maintain high labor productivity in the mining industry. If labor productivity in mining begins to decline, the pessimistic scenario will be realized: “Russia is the periphery of the world.” The structure of the economy does not change.

The resource extraction industry remains focused on oil and is not restructuring. According to British Petrolium estimates, there are 27 years of oil reserves left in Russia (at current production levels), experts say. After the oil reserves are exhausted, stagnation will begin in the country. “At the same time, all sectors of the economy are impoverished with the exception of mining, finance and trade. Due to weak integration into the international financial system and market, the economy with the current structure will return the country to the relative standard of living of the 1990s,” the article says. As in all previous scenarios, Russia after 2040 will seriously suffer from a “demographic rollback.”

Tags: World, Economy

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