The Earth's atmosphere arose as a result of the release of gases during volcanic eruptions. With the advent of the oceans and the biosphere, it was also formed due to gas exchange with water, plants, animals and their decomposition products in soils and swamps.
At present, the Earth's atmosphere consists mainly of gases and various impurities (dust, water drops, ice crystals, sea salts, combustion products).
The concentration of gases that make up the atmosphere is almost constant, with the exception of water (H 2 O) and carbon dioxide(CO2).
In addition to the gases indicated in the table, the atmosphere contains SO 2, NH 3, CO, ozone, hydrocarbons, HCl, HF, Hg vapor, I 2, as well as NO and many other gases in small quantities. In the troposphere there is constantly a large amount of suspended solid and liquid particles (aerosol).
Carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere, as of 2011, is presented in the amount of 392 ppm or 0.0392%. The role of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 , dioxide or carbon dioxide) in the life of the biosphere consists primarily in maintaining the process of photosynthesis, which is carried out by plants. Being a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide in the air affects the heat exchange of the planet with the surrounding space, effectively blocking the re-radiated heat at a number of frequencies, and thus participates in the formation of the planet's climate.
In connection with the active use by mankind of fossil energy carriers as fuel, there is a rapid increase in the concentration of this gas in the atmosphere. For the first time, anthropogenic influence on the concentration of carbon dioxide has been noted since the middle of the 19th century. Since that time, the rate of its growth has increased and in the late 2000s it occurred at a rate of 2.20±0.01 ppm/year, or 1.7% per year. According to separate studies, the current level of CO 2 in the atmosphere is the highest in the last 800 thousand years and, possibly, in the last 20 million years.
Role in the greenhouse effect
Despite its relatively low concentration in the air, CO 2 is an important component earth's atmosphere because it absorbs and re-radiates infrared radiation at various wavelengths, including a wavelength of 4.26 μm (vibrational mode - asymmetric stretching of the molecule) and 14.99 μm (bending vibrations). This process excludes or reduces the radiation of the Earth into space at these wavelengths, which leads to the greenhouse effect. The current change in the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 affects the absorption bands, where its current influence on the Earth's re-emission spectrum leads to only partial absorption.
In addition to the greenhouse properties of carbon dioxide, the fact that it is a heavier gas than air is also significant. Since the average relative molar mass of air is 28.98 g / mol, and the molar mass of CO 2 is 44.01 g / mol, an increase in the proportion of carbon dioxide leads to an increase in air density and, accordingly, to a change in its pressure profile depending on height. By virtue of physical nature greenhouse effect, such a change in the properties of the atmosphere leads to an increase in the average surface temperature.
In general, an increase in concentration from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to a current level of 392 ppm is equivalent to an additional release of 1.8 watts per square meter the surface of the planet. This gas also has the unique property of having a long-term impact on the climate, which, after the emission that caused it ceases, remains largely constant for up to a thousand years. Other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, exist free in the atmosphere for a shorter time.
Sources of carbon dioxide
Natural sources of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere include volcanic eruptions, combustion organic matter in the air and the breath of representatives of the animal world (aerobic organisms). Also, carbon dioxide is produced by some microorganisms as a result of the fermentation process, cellular respiration and in the process of decay of organic remains in the air. Anthropogenic sources of CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere include: combustion of fossil fuels to produce heat, generate electricity, and transport people and goods. Certain industrial activities, such as the production of cement and the utilization of gases by flaring, lead to significant CO 2 emissions.
Plants convert the carbon dioxide they receive into carbohydrates during photosynthesis, which is carried out through the pigment chlorophyll, which uses the energy of solar radiation. The resulting gas, oxygen, is released into the Earth's atmosphere and used for respiration by heterotrophic organisms and other plants, thus forming the carbon cycle.
Anthropogenic emission
Emission of carbon into the atmosphere as a result of prom. activity in 1800 - 2004
With the advent of the industrial revolution in the middle of the 19th century, there was a progressive increase in anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which led to an imbalance in the carbon cycle and an increase in CO 2 concentration. Currently, about 57% of the carbon dioxide produced by mankind is removed from the atmosphere by plants and oceans. The ratio of the increase in the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere to the total emitted CO 2 is a constant value of about 45% and undergoes short-term fluctuations and fluctuations with a period of five years.
The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas is the main cause of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, deforestation is the second leading cause. In 2008, the burning of fossil fuels released 8.67 billion tons of carbon (31.8 billion tons of CO 2 ) into the atmosphere, while in 1990 the annual carbon emission was 6.14 billion tons. The inventory of forests for land use resulted in an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to the burning of 1.2 billion tons of coal in 2008 (1.64 billion tons in 1990). The cumulative increase over 18 years is 3% of the annual natural CO 2 cycle, which is enough to throw the system out of balance and cause CO 2 levels to increase rapidly. As a result, carbon dioxide gradually accumulated in the atmosphere and in 2009 its concentration was 39% higher than the pre-industrial value.
Thus, despite the fact that (as of 2011) the total anthropogenic emission of CO 2 does not exceed 8% of its natural annual cycle, an increase in concentration is observed, due not only to the level of anthropogenic emissions, but also constant growth emission levels over time.
Carbon dioxide (CO2).
Carbon dioxide is perhaps the most important of all the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere by humans, firstly because it causes a strong Greenhouse effect and, secondly, because so much of this gas is formed due to the fault of man.
Carbon dioxide is a very "natural" component of the atmosphere - so natural that we have only recently begun to think about anthropogenic carbon dioxide as a pollutant. Carbon dioxide can be a useful thing. However, the key question is at what point does CO2 become too much? Or, in other words, in what quantities does it begin to have a harmful effect on the environment?
What seems natural from the point of view of man today may differ significantly from what was natural for the Earth in the process of its evolutionary development. The history of mankind is only a very thin slice (no more than a few million years) on a geological layer of more than 4.6 billion years.
Some environmentalists fear that carbon dioxide will lead to catastrophic changes in the climate, such as those described in Bill McKibben's book Nature's End.
Most likely, carbon dioxide dominated the Earth's early atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 is only about 0.03 percent today, and the most pessimistic predictions are for it to rise to 0.09 percent by 2100. Approximately 4.5 billion years ago, some scientists believe that CO2 made up 80 percent of the composition of the Earth's atmosphere, slowly dropping initially to 30-20 percent over the next 2.5 billion years. Free oxygen was virtually non-existent in the early atmosphere and was poisonous to the anaerobic life forms that existed at that time.
The existence of man, as we know today, in conditions of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, was simply impossible. Fortunately for humans and animals, most of the CO2 was removed from the atmosphere late in Earth's history, when sea dwellers, early forms of algae, developed the ability to photosynthesize. During photosynthesis, plants use the sun's energy to convert carbon dioxide and water into sugar and oxygen. In the end, algae and other, more advanced life forms that evolved (plankton, plants, and trees) died, sequestering most of the carbon in various carbon minerals (oil shale, coal, and oil) in the earth's crust. What's left in the atmosphere is the oxygen we breathe now.
Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere from various sources - most of which are natural. But the amount of CO2 usually stays about the same level, because there are mechanisms that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Figure 5 gives a simplified diagram of the circulation of CO2 in the atmosphere).
One of the main natural mechanisms of CO2 circulation is the exchange of gases between the atmosphere and the surface of the oceans. This exchange is a very delicate, well-balanced process with feedback. The amount of carbon dioxide involved in it is truly enormous. Scientists measure these quantities in giga tons (Ggt - billions of metric tons) of carbon for convenience.
Carbon dioxide readily dissolves in water (the process that produces carbonated water). It is also easily released from the water (in carbonated water, we see this as a fizz). Atmospheric carbon dioxide is continuously dissolved in water at the surface of the oceans and released back into the atmosphere. This phenomenon is almost entirely explained by the physical and chemical processes. The surface of the world's oceans annually releases 90 Ggt of carbon, and absorbs 92 Ggt of carbon. When scientists compare these two processes, it turns out that the surface of the world's oceans, in fact, is a carbon dioxide sink, that is, it absorbs more CO2 than it releases back into the atmosphere.
The magnitude of carbon dioxide fluxes in the atmosphere/ocean cycle remains the most important factor because small changes in the existing balance can have unpredictable effects on other natural processes.
Equally important in the circulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are biological processes. CO2 is essential for photosynthesis. Plants "breathe" carbon dioxide, absorbing about 102 Ggt of carbon annually. However, plants, animals and other organisms also emit CO2. One of the reasons for the formation of carbon dioxide is explained by the metabolic process - respiration. When breathing, living organisms burn the oxygen they breathe. Humans and other land animals, for example, inhale oxygen to sustain life and exhale carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere as waste. According to calculations, all living organisms on Earth annually exhale about 50 Ggt of carbon.
When plants and animals die, the organic carbon compounds found in them are incorporated into the soil or silt in swamps. Nature composts these products of withered life like a gardener, breaking them down into their constituent parts through various chemical transformations and the work of microorganisms. According to scientists, during the decay, about 50 Ggt of carbon gets back into the atmosphere.
Thus, 102 Ggt of carbon taken from the atmosphere annually is almost one hundred percent balanced by the 102 Gg tons of carbon that enters the atmosphere annually through the respiration and decay of animals and plants. It is necessary to be fully aware of the magnitude of carbon fluxes in nature, since slight deviations in the existing balance can have far-reaching consequences.
Compared to the atmosphere-ocean cycle and the biological cycle, the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of human activities, at first glance, seems negligible. When burning coal, oil and natural gas a person emits approximately 5.7 Ggt of carbon into the atmosphere (according to IPCC). When cutting down and burning forests, people add another 2 Gg tons. It should be noted that there are different estimates of the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere as a result of deforestation.
These quantities certainly play a role because the natural carbon cycles (atmosphere/ocean and biological cycle) have been in a well-adjusted balance for a long time. At least, the balance was maintained in the time period in which the origin and development of mankind took place. Human industrial and agricultural activities seem to have significantly skewed the carbon balance.
Various Scientific research showed an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere over the past few centuries. During this time, the world's population grew exponentially, the steam engine came into use in industry, internal combustion-engine cars spread across the planet, and migrant farmers cleared vegetation. huge territories America, Australia and Asia.
During the same time, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased from 280 parts per million (ppmv) pre-industrial (1750) to about 353 ppmv, about 25 percent. This amount could be enough to cause significant changes if the climate is indeed sensitive to greenhouse gases to the extent that scientists suggest. Measurements at the Manua Loa Observatory in Hawaii, far removed from sources of industrial pollution, show a steady rise in CO2 concentrations between 1958 and 1990 (Figure 6). In the past two years, however, no increase in carbon dioxide concentrations has been observed.
The close relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations and estimated average global temperatures is amazing (Figure 7)! However, whether this correlation is random is still a mystery. It is easy to be tempted to attribute fluctuations in temperature to fluctuations in CO2 concentrations. But the relationship can also be reversed - a change in temperature can cause a change in carbon dioxide concentrations.
The vast majority of ventilation experts agree: carbon dioxide is an indicator of the state of the air (authoritative proof from ABOK). A lot of CO2 means a lot and more harmful substances (formaldehydes and other toxic organics, PM2.5, etc.). This is logical: after all, if ventilation cannot cope with air exchange, then CO2 exhaled by us and the rest of the “air cocktail” accumulate in the room. So it is quite reasonable to measure the concentration of CO2 in the air in order to assess the quality of this very air.Is carbon dioxide an air pollutant like car exhaust or industrial emissions? Research on this topic is conflicting. There are many articles about the harm of CO2 (example one, example two). There are fewer studies showing that carbon dioxide is practically harmless, but there are some (example). If you are interested in this topic, write in the comments. In the future, we may do a detailed review of the effects of CO2 on human health.
Our opinion is that carbon dioxide clearly affects a person's well-being (lethargy, fatigue, drowsiness). Remember how you feel in a stuffy office or apartment with closed windows. The average effect of CO2 on a person looks something like this:
How to measure the amount of CO2 in the air?
The level of carbon dioxide in the air is measured in ppm: 1 ppm = 0.0001%, that is, one part per million. For Russia, 1400 ppm of carbon dioxide in the air is already an unacceptable amount (according to GOST 30494-2011). In America, the ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers) general standards state that headache complaints start at 2000 ppm.On average, the hospital gets the following picture:
- 300 ppm - the norm outdoors in nature
- 500 ppm - the norm on the street in a modern city
- 700-1500 ppm is the norm in the room, and closer to 1500 ppm, complaints of stuffiness, headache, lethargy, etc. are already beginning.
All done with an introduction. We proceed directly to the measurement. Word to Mikhail Amelkin.
Transport
The trip started from the plane. Flight Novosibirsk-Moscow, about 4 hours. The plane is full, Airbus A316. The entire flight, the concentration of CO2 is about 2000 ppm! Add here too high a temperature on board (about 28°C) and low pressure (786 hPa versus 1007 hPa on the ground), and you will understand why we are so “sausage” after flights. For comparison, at the airport of arrival, about 700 ppm, that is, the norm. On the way back, I flew in a half-empty plane and the situation was much better - the entire flight was up to 1000 ppm, which is acceptable.
The subway is much better. At the station itself underground 600 ppm. In old, "leaky" cars, about 700 ppm. Here in the new subway cars, where the air conditioners drive the air in a circle, it is already worse - with an incomplete load of 1200 ppm. In a full car, more than 2000 ppm should be expected. But here it is worth bearing in mind that we usually spend little time in such cars, 10-20 minutes, so this is not very critical.
Street
Made a stop right on the Red Square. The level is about 450 ppm. This is higher than outside the city, which is most likely due to the abundance of transport, boiler houses and industry, which actively emit CO2 into the air, creating a “bubble” of carbon dioxide over the city. But it's not scary. Bye.
Home and hotel
I was lucky, and in my room the concentration of CO2 was less than 600 ppm all night. Great! I didn't sleep well. This is because I asked for a room with a window to the courtyard and was able to keep the window on micro-ventilation without waking up from the noise of cars. But there is no ventilation in the room, so the fee for fresh air is also not small - Moscow could. There would be a fan with professional filters - it would be a fiver!
I must say that measurements in apartments with closed windows often show very poor results, a couple of people in a room can easily “breathe” 2000 ppm in 40-60 minutes. And the windows are usually closed so that there are no drafts and noise from the street. The conclusion is the same as in the case of the hotel - ventilation is a must have at home. At the same time, it is easier and cheaper to put compact ones than to bother with full ventilation.
Restaurants and cinemas
Here the picture is very different, but one thing is obvious (someone will say that this is clear even without appliances) - our restaurateurs love to save on a fan! For example, I had a business meeting at the Daily Bread coffee shop on Nikolskaya. The place is good, but the trouble with the air is 2000 ppm! In such an atmosphere it is very difficult to think and solve business issues. It was a little better at Chaikhona No. 1 on Pushkinskaya, up to 1500 ppm.
But there are also good places: at Starbucks on Revolution Square and at Five Stars on Paveletskaya 700 ppm and 800 ppm, respectively. But in the cinema hall of this wonderful cinema it was “no ice” - up to 1500 ppm the whole session. At the same time, the administration did not stint on air conditioners - it was cool in the halls and this “brightened up” the situation. But air conditioners do not replace ventilation! Temperature is temperature, and oxygen is oxygen, it must be both.
While this is all the information on Moscow. I undertake to make a survey trip in Novosibirsk. What can be said in summary?
conclusions
According to the data obtained, one can unequivocally state the low quality of air in transport, especially when there are many passengers in it. A couple of tips on what to do on a stuffy plane.- Use airflow, it is in every aircraft on the ceiling or "in the back of the seat in front of you." From there, the air also comes in excess of CO2 (checked), but it at least inflates that “bubble” of carbon dioxide that you “breathed” around you.
- If it's hot in the cabin, undress. Let it be a little cool. The lower the body temperature, the better the blood is saturated with oxygen and carbon dioxide is excreted.
- Keep activity to a minimum. It is better to sleep or "meditate". Try not to be nervous, not to take triple integrals in your mind. Remember, the brain consumes about 20% of all oxygen in the blood!
- If you smoke, it's best not to smoke a few hours before your flight. This will clear the blood of carbon monoxide and improve the supply of oxygen to the brain. Better use nicotine gum / pills / patches.
- After arrival, spend an hour outside, breathe, do breathing exercises, normalize the biochemistry in the blood. Let your brain recover!
This time, it was not possible to "hunt" for CO2 in schools, kindergartens and offices, but there is reason to believe that there are regularly exceeded concentrations of carbon dioxide. A little spoiler: we have already measured CO2 in the classroom of one of the Novosibirsk schools - more than 2000 ppm! And children should study and work with their heads there. And how to demand concentration and academic performance from a child when the head does not cook just physiologically?
Tion note: there will be a material about our mini-study at school soon.
In short, I want to choose places of work and rest based on air quality as well. I believe this will greatly improve average temperature in the ward" - my and my family's well-being.
Image copyright AFP
The average level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of our planet in 2015 for the first time during the observation period reached a critical level of 400 parts per million, the World Meteorological Organization said.
The critical level of carbon dioxide was recorded by an air monitoring station located in Hawaii.
As experts suggest, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will not fall below 400 parts per million throughout 2016, and possibly in the coming decades.
What does this mean for you and me?
Host of the program "The Fifth Floor" AlexanderBaranov discusses the topic with the director of the program "Climate and Energy" World Fund wildlife AlexeatKokorinth and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology Ural branch Russian Academy Sciences EvgenyeatZinovievth.
AlexanderBarans:400 ppm for common man who does not understand climate issues, but taught arithmetic at school, this is very little. As little as 200, 100 or 500. Especially when it comes to colorless and odorless gas. Why are scientists suddenly so alarmed?
Alexey kokorin: CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases, second only to water vapor, and the main gas whose concentration in the atmosphere is influenced by humans.
And the fact that a person does not affect the content of water vapor does not make things much easier, because the influence on the content of CO2 is large, and isotope analysis has proven that this CO2 is from fuel combustion. It's a lot.
The number is very small, but it is 30% more than 50-60 years ago. And before that, the level was constant for a long time, there are data from direct measurements.
A.B.: Do scientists now agree that CO2 is driving climate change, and not the other way around? Some time ago, some scientists said that the rise in carbon dioxide emissions is affected by the warming of the ocean. And a person, compared to the ocean, emits much less CO2 into the atmosphere. What is the current consensus on this?
A.K.: The consensus is almost complete. I mentioned isotope analysis because in the past, and this is also proven, first the temperature changed, and then the concentration of CO2.
This was during the transition period between ice ages and in other cases. The correlation went like this. Here the correlation goes in a different sequence. But most importantly, there is evidence of isotopic analysis. There is a consensus here.
EvgenyWinoviev: I'm not a climatologist, I'm a paleontologist. At our institute, we observe in the north, in the Arctic, both an increase in the content of CO2, and this is shown by our colleagues dendrochronologists, and accompanying changes - this is the advance of the forest boundary. We monitor the landscapes of the northern part of the West Siberian Plain and the Polar and subpolar Urals, and over the past forty years, the northern border of the forest has been shifting to the north.
This does not yet reach the limits that were in the climatic optimum of the Holocene, when woody vegetation reached the middle Yamal, but the process is going in that direction and is indirectly associated with climate warming. Woody plants gradually occupy territories from which they once receded.
The warming that we are now seeing is not the most significant, now the climate is not the warmest. I can compare with the recent geological past - the last 130-140 thousand years. This period is called the Mikulin interglacial, and then plants and heat-loving animals moved much further north than they do now.
In our time, according to objective data, such levels have not yet been reached. But that warming was very short-lived, only about 5 thousand years. Then it was replaced by cooling, then warming again, and then came a long cold period, the Zyryansk glaciation, which was also divided into warmer and colder epochs. Then the Scandinavian ice sheet began to form.
A.B.: That isVAre you talking about a cold snap in the Medieval period?
E.Z.: You are talking about historical times, and I mean earlier borders. This is the Late Pleistocene.
A.B.: And what conclusions can we, non-specialists, draw from this? Opponents of the theory of human-induced global warming say that we are simply in a period of a certain cycle and various fluctuations in CO2 concentration are associated with this.
Carbon dioxide is food for plants. In the process of photosynthesis, plants absorb carbon dioxide, release oxygen into the atmosphere, and the higher the carbon dioxide content, the more actively the plants begin to consume it and the faster they grow.
E.Z.: The development of woody vegetation is not observed, on the contrary. IN North America, southern Europe forests are burning, forest vegetation is degrading, aridization is taking place, and the climate is drying up. The lungs of the planet are shrinking.
A.B.: Why is this happening? Do you think they should expand?
E.Z.: Climate is a multi-vector system, there may be different factors that we cannot always take into account. There is a point of view that glaciers will begin to melt, which is associated with climate warming, and this is happening.
The Greenland ice sheet is also degrading, and in the Arctic, a large amount of fresh water can change the direction of the Gulf Stream. Then this stove for Europe will cease to heat the north of Europe, and the formation of glaciers will begin there again. It will be very bad.
A sharp warming can give impetus to a sharp cooling. The ice cap accumulates water, the climate begins to dry out. Solid forests are disappearing, sparse forests are being formed. The climate becomes dry, cold, continental, and it becomes so not only in Siberia, but also in Europe.
Everything is very complex and interconnected. I would not simplify it, we must also take into account the modern factor - the increase in CO2 emissions associated with industrial human activity, with the presence a large number industries, machines and so on - you can not argue with that. Especially in large metropolitan areas where large industries are concentrated.
But another question is what consequences it will have. Mankind is used to living in certain comfortable conditions. If an increase or decrease in the level of the world's oceans begins, then catastrophes will begin. They can be provoked anthropogenic impact. Mankind is not so small as not to influence the natural environment. It has become a geological factor, and not just a biological one, it changes more fundamental things in the biosphere, in the earth's crust.
A.B.: Let's say humanity can reduce CO2 emissions. But that's just one of the factors., and not the biggest. Can this change something, lead to some kind of sharp improvement in the situation?
A.K.: It is very important, from the point of view of the physics of the atmosphere and the ocean, to understand what is happening. Two processes are taking place: this is the process of natural climate variability - the sun, the most obvious, complex periodic processes in the ocean, the Atlantic, the Pacific.
There are also more studied things - heat transfers from the atmosphere to the ocean and back, which are cyclical. These cyclical processes are superimposed on a constant impact, which is linear.
Over the 21st century, temperatures are expected to rise in best case by two degrees, but really - by three or three and a half. And at the same time, cooling and warming will occur cyclically, and warming will happen much faster. And it is not at all obvious that the increase in the number of dangerous hydrological phenomena will decrease with decreasing temperature.
A.B.: This is very difficult to understand for a person who does not deal with this problem and mainly watches popular science programs, where these questions are primitivized, simplified, but simple arguments act on the consciousness of an ordinary person who looks at it from the outside.
When given a graph of temperature changes inXXcentury and they say: look, while man did not particularly affect the atmosphere, the temperature rose, and when he began to influence, when industrialization was more powerful after 1940 until 1970, when the situation should have worsened, we observed a cooling.
On the basis of such graphs, people say that a person does not really influence, there are some more powerful factors that are beyond our control. Therefore, talk about the role of man in global warming is a myth behind which are those who benefit from it.
E.Z.: The cumulative effect is starting to work, the impact of a person is on the rise. At some stage, it may not manifest itself, but then, as the concentration of CO2, greenhouse gases increases, sooner or later it manifests itself virtually throughout the globe. Both in developed areas and in the north, in the Arctic.
The anthropogenic factor is superimposed on astronomical factors associated with the Earth's orbit, cyclicity is strongly manifested, and so on. And when everything is superimposed on each other, completely unpredictable events can happen.
And the anthropogenic impact will increase even if there are restrictions on production and so on. There are a lot of cars produced that pollute the atmosphere very much. And other factors. They won't go anywhere.
And herbaceous and woody vegetation does not increase, but, on the contrary, the forest cover is degraded.
A.B.: But we have also seen reports of a different kind that the Amazon forests have suddenly begun to grow in Brazil.
E.Z.: It is, but you look what's going on in America? Southwest California? There are massive Forest fires. It takes time for the forest to recover after a fire. After a fire, several years pass before the forest begins to grow. And where it's dry, it just stops growing. The forest turns into steppe, desert and so on.
A.B.: These are serious factors, but it is difficult for ordinary consciousness to reconcile this with its own activity. One can adhere to the theory that human activity is the last straw that can outweigh the ecological balance against the backdrop of more serious factors. But when they say that there is such a factor as spots on the Sun, the activation of the Sun, which is a powerful source of energy, in comparison with which all our activities are a trifle, it is even impossible to compare.
Thatthe graphs show - when the Sun is active, the temperature rises, and when it is less active, it decreases, all this is correlated. Then they say that everything depends on which orbit the Earth moves in. If the orbit is elliptical, it gets colder. And when all this is said to a person, he thinks: well, compared to such cosmic phenomena our unfortunate emissions into the atmosphere. How can we convince a person that we can upset this balance with our actions?
E.Z.: It is necessary to somehow convince, because this is really not the last factor. For example, forests are burning even without a person - dry thunderstorms and so on. But human activity contributes to this. Everyone must start with themselves. People should understand that a lot depends on them.
One person can say: I will do what I think is necessary, nothing depends on me anyway. But there are millions of people, and if everyone thinks so, it will not get any better. The inertia of human thinking exists, unfortunately.
A.B.: How to convince a person that his car, on which he will pass extrafivekilometers, also affects the climate, even against the background of the fact that the Earth is in an elliptical orbit, and not in some other?
A.K.: Russian climatologists, and not only Russian ones, thought about how to demonstrate this clearly. Probable reactions of the Sun in 15-20 years with a high probability will reduce the temperature by the globe about 0.25 degrees. And the anthropogenic impact is at least two degrees. It was the same in the 1930s and 1940s.
And another characteristic thing is this: both the stratosphere and the troposphere are warming up. That is, you have, as it were, a greenhouse film, and if it heats up above the film and under the film, it means that the light bulb has begun to heat up more. And if it heats up under the film, and it gets colder above the film, it means that the film has become thicker. Here's how you can try to explain it.
A.B.: Do you admit the possibility that we really are between two ice ages and something will happen, and a cooling will begin on Earth?
E.Z.: Your question suggests that my colleague and I speak badly. Of course, we are between two ice ages, one that ended about 300 thousand years ago, and one that will begin in a few thousand years - maybe 20, maybe 100. My colleague as a climatologist knows better about this. But it will be absolutely correct. We are talking about other time scales. On this scale, human influence on global warming can not be considered, it is hundreds of thousands of years.
A.B.: That is, we can not live up to this cold snap?
E.Z.: Unfortunately, we will definitely not live to see global cooling, even none of our great-grandchildren will live. Will there be periods of cooling during the 21st century? Yes, they probably will. We live in an era of superposition of various variations, including solar ones, on the global trend.
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