When will a nuclear war on Earth be inevitable? This question has been since the invention atomic bomb worries all of humanity: people who went to rallies condemning the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki; writers who fantasize about colonizing Mars where lethal missiles can't reach; experts who are seriously trying to predict the onset of "Day X". For more than 70 years, the creators of the Doomsday Clock have given their answer to it.
Signs need to be deciphered
The project was started in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a journal of the University of Chicago. The idea behind Doomsday Clock is simple. Midnight was taken as the starting point, symbolizing the onset of a nuclear cataclysm. The time remaining up to this point shows how tense the situation is in the world - the closer the arrow to 12, the worse.
The decision on changes to the Clock is made annually in November by the Board of Directors of the magazine together with invited experts. At the same time, the verdict, as a rule, strongly depends on the knowledge of the audience: there is no specific formula for calculating time, so scientists simply discuss world problems and make their forecast based on the entire discussion. They try to take into account not only nuclear threats, but also, for example, climate change, the growth of nationalist sentiments, dangers like cyber wars and bioterrorism, and much more.
Of course, such assessments are highly subjective. But the creators of the Doomsday Clock never considered it a perfect predictor of nuclear war. Rather, the authors see them as a kind of symbol designed to inform the world community about threats.
minus to minus
In total, the hands of the Clock, originally set at 23:53, moved 24 times. The last one - in January 2018, for 30 seconds. Since then, they froze at 23:58 - a record dangerous time. The same number was only in 1953, when the USSR and the USA, with a difference of only nine months, tested their thermonuclear bombs.
The Clock showed the least in 1991. Then the probability of a nuclear midnight by as much as 17 minutes - until 23:43 - pushed back the signing of the treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive arms. But since then, the hands have been gradually approaching midnight.
First, in 1995, they were moved three minutes due to the "leakage" of nuclear technology from former USSR. In 1998, nuclear weapons testing by India and Pakistan came just five minutes closer to midnight. Two minutes closer to the likelihood of a catastrophe in 2002 and 2007 was the US rejection of the ABM treaty, the growing confrontation between Moscow and Washington, and the development of the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. Three minutes have been "stolen" from mankind by insufficient progress in nuclear disarmament.
What the future has in store for us
In 2017 and 2018, the creators of the Doomsday Clock, contrary to established tradition, brought the hands closer to midnight not by minutes, but by 30 seconds. According to Bulletin board member Lawrence Krauss, this was done so as not to distort the perception of change.
The problems to which attention was drawn are no less serious. In the first case, the statements of US President Donald Trump about plans to build up the American nuclear arsenal forced the experts to move the arrows, in the second, the testing of new missiles in the DPRK. And despite the fact that the danger of these threats then became a little less, in 2019, experts nevertheless decided not to change the time.
However, it is quite possible that changes will occur as early as 2020. In a report for 2018, experts drew attention to the fact that in order to avoid a global catastrophe, it is time for the United States to stop going into open confrontation with its opponents and reduce interest in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries, Moscow and Washington - to stop political confrontation, China - to put pressure on the North Korea to relieve stress.
To date, none of these recommendations have been implemented. Moreover, the first months of 2019 do not add optimism: the US and Russia have announced the suspension of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the dialogue on the Korean problem seems to have reached a dead end again. So in November, the creators of the Doomsday Clock will not have the easiest choice.
Moscow, April 11 - Vesti.Ekonomika. Given the events last days around Syria, we can confidently say that it is time to move the doomsday clock forward one more minute.
Since the beginning of 2015, the Doomsday Clock has been three minutes to midnight. However, the advisory council that publishes the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decided in January 2018 to move the clock forward one minute. Representatives of this authoritative organization explained that this position of the arrows is due to the fact that in 2017 all the world's nuclear powers were actively investing in the development of their arsenals.
Among them is also North Korea, which constantly conducts missile and nuclear tests. The configuration program also causes alarm for scientists. nuclear forces USA, which leaves room for increasing the role of atomic and hydrogen weapons.
Background
For the first time, the Doomsday Clock began to function in 1947. During the 71-year history of the project, the clock hands changed their position more than twenty times. During the Caribbean Crisis of 1962, when the world was on the verge of a nuclear war, the watch did not have time to react to the situation, since the situation was resolved within 38 days.
The current indicator is one of the closest to nuclear midnight, which means a possible approach of a nuclear cataclysm. The Doomsday Clock showed the same time in 1953 after the first test of the hydrogen bomb.
One of the main reasons for this decision should be the concentration of heavy weapons of nuclear powers near the coast of Syria.
The ships of the Russian Navy began to conduct exercises near the coast of Syria, follows from the international notification for aviation personnel (NOTAM) and navigational warning for mariners. The messages give the coordinates of the closed area, and also talk about firing practice there.
Currently, about 15 warships and support vessels operate in the Mediterranean Sea as part of the permanent task force of the Russian Navy. Black Sea Fleet, including carriers of Caliber cruise missiles, frigates Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Essen, as well as submarines that have repeatedly attacked terrorist targets in Syria.
Military experts believe that these exercises are nothing more than the US decision to bring the destroyer "Donald Cook" to the Russian military base Tartus for 100 km. According to Turkish media reports, Russian combat aircraft rose towards the ship. They flew over it at least four times.
It also became known that a similar destroyer, the Porter, could soon join the Donald Cook. It is only a few days for him to reach the coast of Syria, writes the Wall Street Journal.
It is worth noting that Washington also assesses the situation as critical, which is especially clear from the decision to take the Doomsday plane into the air. The Boeing E-4B Nightwatch, a command post in the event of a nuclear war, took off in Indiana. In addition to the president, the plane may have command of the US Armed Forces.
A flying command center in the event of a nuclear war can be in the air for a long time. There are 4 such aircraft in the USA and they can be used in emergency situations.
Who needs to escalate the conflict?
Will the West go to big war, how far is the end of the anti-Russian hysteria, and does the UN Security Council have effective tools? About this, using the example of the situation in Syria, presenter Alexander Kareevsky talks with his guests in the studio.
Under these conditions, it is hard not to assume that the military lobby, or the "deep government" of the United States, is once again doing everything to provide key military corporations (Lockheed Martin, etc.) with new orders.
These corporations control the US government and NATO. And to understand how they do it is necessary in order to appreciate foreign policy America, that is, which countries are "allies" of the US government (such as Saudi Arabia and Israel) and which countries are its "enemies" (such as Libya and Syria) and, therefore, are suitable for an American invasion or overthrow of the government of this country through a coup . The head of state is demonized, then there is an invasion or coup. That's all.
Since America has privatized the defense industry, in America investors will be able to profit from the invasion and occupation foreign countries and the billionaires who control these corporations are buying up Congress and the president to keep that revenue flowing for themselves.
This is the essence of the military business, since its markets are governments, but not the governments that the aristocracy wants to overthrow and replace. Foreign governments to be overthrown are not markets, but targets. These unfortunate countries are heading towards bloodshed and poverty. But if you control these corporations, you need these invasions and occupations, and you certainly don't care about any of the victims, which (unlike profits) are not related to your business.
In fact, killing people and destroying buildings is what you, as a billionaire with a majority stake in one of the top 100 contractors in the US government, are selling to your government and all other governments that the country's propaganda will present as "enemies" - Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, etc. - and definitely not as "allies" like foreign markets: Saudi Arabia, EU-NATO, Israel, etc.
As for your largest overseas markets, they will be "allies", so you (i.e. the national aristocracy, owning the media, etc.) will protect them, and you will need the US military (taxpayers and troops) to protect them. This is to protect your market, although you, as the owner of the corporation, do not pay for anything.
This is the unique nature of the military business and unique opportunities for investors.
Thus, on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump sold the Saud family, which owns Saudi Arabia, the products of American arms manufacturers for a record $350 billion, which they are now required to buy over the next ten years with a down payment of $100 billion in the first year alone. . This deal is by far the biggest piece of Trump's stimulus for American manufacturers. However, it concerns only military manufacturers, which are almost entirely dependent on sales to governments, in particular "friendly" governments: "allies" like the Saud family.
Doomsday Clock was stopped at 23:58 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists from the University of Chicago in 2018. Formally, the reasons for this step were the persistence of North Korea in the nuclear program, as well as global climate change. But everyone understands that the main games that affect the position of the arrows are unfolding between NATO, Russia and China. Two minutes to midnight is an almost unprecedented value in a 72-year-old hour. This was observed in the era of thermonuclear tests, and even in the Cuban Missile Crisis, the position of the arrows was not so extreme. Paradoxically, what we see now in the world is nothing like the times when bombers were loaded with atomic bombs before taking off, and US and Soviet tanks aimed at each other at Checkpoint Charlie. The approach of a real military conflict, at first glance, does not give itself away.
Apart from the hysteria that most of the media whips up, no one is particularly ready for serious military operations in the spirit of the Second World War. There are only two brigades of the US Armed Forces in Europe, which is no comparison with the almost 300,000-strong contingent during the most intense years of the Cold War. Now resistance Russian army from the NATO countries in the European theater of operations will last for best case 1.5-2 months. And even less if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons. But even now, and during the Cold War, such a blitzkrieg would have turned out to be a dead end. In the end, the leadership of the country would face the prospect of managing the destroyed territories of European countries with a hostile population and serious radioactive contamination. The United States would not have waited long, and would have brought down first tactical nuclear weapons, and then intercontinental missiles. And this, in fact, is the end of civilization in the form we are used to. The stable balance between the two superpowers of the 20th century somehow protected us from Armageddon.
A banal example of what can happen if there is no equal rival on the horizon is the history of clumsy US aggression in the 90s and 2000s. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya got under the rink, and this could not but annoy the other players. Since then, the hands of the doomsday clock, after a short delay associated with the collapse of the USSR, began to inexorably approach midnight.
Another worrying factor bringing the war closer to us was the change of generations in the leadership of the world's leading countries. Young people came to power, who know about the horrors of the Second World War at best from the pages of university textbooks. For them, the concept of nuclear deterrence becomes only a burden on the country's defense budget. It is increasingly difficult for leaders and the expert community to understand the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. For them, it can be just another click on their smartphone. On the other hand, in the West it is very clearly understood that any fighting on their own territory will inevitably lead to a sharp internal reaction leading to a change of power. That is why third countries become the arena of future (and modern) battles, which does not at all exclude a direct clash of the main participating countries. Now Ukraine is becoming such a territory, which may well push Russia and NATO head-on. Possible triggers local wars aggressive attempts to undermine political system in Belarus or strikes against Russian bases in Syria.
Who will be the first to use nuclear weapons in hypothetical local clashes between Russia, China and NATO? Still, this power will be kept in a holster: modern military equipment allows you to successfully complete most tasks on the battlefield without annoying the enemy once again with nuclear strikes. According to the experts of the weekly "Profil", this is indicated by the experience of the Second World War, when none of the participating countries decided to use chemical weapons. But the potential of the armies in this was simply enormous: it was possible for both Germany and Soviet Union just fill it with "chemistry". But they did not dare, everyone was afraid of retribution. However, it is worth mentioning an alternative assessment of this judgment: in all countries, the chemical protection service for the army and civilian population was so well developed that it made spraying toxic substances virtually useless.
Third World War impossible? It is already underway, although it is distinguished by much smaller losses in human resources. Numerous conflicts on the periphery: Georgia in 2008, the Arab Spring, Syria, Ukraine and many more petty wars brewing. It is this picture of a global war that is emerging at the present time. They talked about it back in the 60s and even gave the name - "proxy war", or proxy war (proxy war). Usually several countries fight on the territory of a small troubled state using the resources of the latter, often under the guise of "military assistance" to the fraternal people. A typical conflict of this type was the war in Spain, when Germany and the USSR tried on weapons to each other, rehearsing for a big massacre. Later, Korea, Vietnam and, with reservations, Afghanistan became such arenas. Now we see something similar in Syria. Proxy wars, as cruel as it sounds, are very good for the planet as a whole. The countries “blow off steam”, not daring to exchange direct blows. This was not even during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The only threat to peace in "civilized" countries is mistakes on the periphery, when hotheads either strike at the semi-mythical PMC "Wagner", then "Tomahawks" are massively shot down. In fact, Russia and the United States are very indirectly, but still at war with each other.
But such a benevolent picture can be destroyed by the rejection of two important treaties: the INF Treaty and START-3. The first one has already been torn apart, and the second one will predictably not be extended in 2021. And China will create a global problem here, which has a lot of medium-range missiles, which is very annoying to the United States. The build-up by the United States of a group of tactical missiles will inevitably provoke a response from China, including in terms of expanding the intercontinental nuclear group. In this, China is still seriously behind both Russia and the United States. In full accordance with the snowball effect, the remaining major operators of nuclear forces will begin to build up their own arsenals. And here also hypersonic weapons will arrive in time with a new round of the arms race. The redistribution of deterrence arsenals is inevitable, and it cannot pass without upheavals.
As a result, everything goes to the fact that in the coming years the Doomsday Clock will “push” another 30 seconds closer to midnight. The question is whether the main perpetrators of the switch will pay attention to this.
I am more than sure that many of you have heard about the doomsday clock - the ominous name for some obscure clock that constantly translates closer to midnight. Actually, it's more interesting phenomenon than occasional mention in the news bulletins. In addition, the clock is not only moved forward, there have been adjustments in the opposite direction. What does it depend on, what kind of watch is it, when did it appear and why shouldn't they be afraid? We will answer all questions in this article.
A colorful scenario of the destruction of everything on earth
You might think that the doomsday clock is a real clock that is standing or hanging somewhere. In reality, they exist only on the cover of a magazine that is a project of the University of Chicago. In fact, they do not even carry time, but mathematical. Midnight on the clock means a nuclear cataclysm and, in fact, the end of the world. The closer the clock is to this mark, the more likely the sad outcome. Sometimes the clock is set back. The fact that the movement of the arrows is not one-way is another confirmation that their position indicates precisely the probability of the end, and not the imminent inevitable end. The clock does not count, but makes it clear when the probability of the end of the world is highest.
Oddly enough, the clock was invented by the same people who invented the atomic bomb. It was then, in 1947, that they were set to 23:53, but very quickly transferred to 23:57, when in 1949 the Soviet Union tested its first.
The enchanting beauty of a deadly phenomenon
The question arises why the clock at the very beginning was set exactly at 23:53. You will not like the answer ... It was done just like that. It's just that someone decided that exactly 7 minutes before a nuclear catastrophe looks beautiful. That is why on the cover of the Bulletin there was a clock with this time on the dial. No hidden meaning.
An example of a peaceful, albeit stupid, use of nuclear weapons:
In the early years of the existence of watches, the decision to transfer them was solely made by Chief Editor magazine. After his death in 1973, the decision is made by the Science and Security Council. This council includes experts from completely different fields of science. We can say that this way the clock has become more accurate.
What time does the doomsday clock show
Moving the hands forward 4 minutes in 1949 did not bring the clock to the nearest point from the end of the world. Just 4 years after that, the US and the USSR tested bombs at about the same time. Then the clock was set to 23:58. True, later, they were twice translated five minutes ago. This happened in 1960 and 1963.
In the first case, this was due to the awareness of the world community of the danger of the uncontrolled use of atomic weapons. Awareness expressed itself in in large numbers statements of various politicians on this topic. In the second case, the US and the USSR signed a nuclear test ban treaty. The Cuban Missile Crisis did not even prevent the clock from moving back. The tension rose quickly, but just as quickly subsided. The publication simply did not have time to respond to the threat.
A visual example of how scientists change the doomsday clock
In the future, the clash of interests in Vietnam, India's test of its first nuclear bomb, and much more affected the clock shift. The safest year was 1991, when the US and the USSR signed a strategic arms reduction treaty. This marked the end of the Cold War and allowed the clock to be set to 23:43.
It is worth noting that in addition to the threat of a nuclear strike by one of the parties, the doomsday clock was influenced, albeit to a lesser extent, by the ability to repel these strikes. The development of air defense systems slightly eased the tension.
Now the doomsday clock is set to 23:58. This is due to the great tension in the world caused in the Middle East, North Korea's testing of its nuclear weapons and trade wars of some countries, the largest of which is the conflict between the US and China. In addition, now the doomsday clock is influenced not only by the situation on the arms market, but also by other factors.
What affects the doomsday clock
As conceived by the authors of the watch, the main factor influencing the position of the hands was precisely the nuclear threat. In 2007, the approach changed slightly. According to the authors of the Bulletin, humanity is slowly but surely moving towards catastrophic climate change. Now they have begun to influence the clock. Later, the position in society began to be taken into account as well. different countries and some other factors.
Against the background of relative stability in the field of strategic weapons, changes in the time remaining until midnight can be changed just by including new variables in the calculation.
Since 1991, the clock has been translated 9 times, of which the hands have swung back only once. This happened in 2010, when the United States promised to reduce and began to negotiate with Russia to sign a new strategic offensive arms treaty (START).
Since 2017, a new tradition has emerged to set clocks by 30 seconds. The gap until midnight is getting smaller, and you need to reduce the step. It is possible that soon they will translate for 10 seconds, or even one at a time.
Should I be afraid of the doomsday clock?
Not so long ago, in which I gave examples of the promised ends of the world. Then, as an epilogue, I said that the end of the world is inevitable, but you should not be afraid of it. At the very least, you should not be afraid of him on a specific date. The probability of its occurrence in the infinite future, even according to the theory of probability, is one hundred percent. Is it easier for you to realize that in many billions of years the Sun, like all stars, will explode and the Earth will end? To be honest, I don't care what happens there. Express your opinion on this matter in our Telegram chat.
This is what an underwater nuclear explosion looks like.
Similarly, do not be afraid that the clock is moving closer to midnight. The closer they get to it, the more resistance their arrows will meet. It is one thing to swing nuclear fists when the collision is still far away and quite another when the finger is hovered over the button. At the helm of nuclear powers are people who understand that after a blow to other members of this club, an answer will follow and everything will end. It won't matter what happens next. That is why they will not allow such a collision. There are no winners in a nuclear war.
I don't know what weapons will be used in the third world war, but in the fourth they will fight with sticks and stones - Albert Einstein on the global threat of using powerful weapons.
In this scenario, more likely, I think, is the mistake of someone in charge of air defense systems. Although, in this age of technology, there are probably systems that will not allow just one conditional sergeant to make a mistake in a game with such high stakes.
Let's put that option aside and move on with our lives. We have enough other problems to worry about what we cannot change.
Last week, physicists - the organizers of the Doomsday Clock project - moved the hands of the symbolic clock by half a minute closer to midnight. So they say that, in particular, the election of Trump has brought us a little closer to the end of the world; NATO Secretary General does not agree with them. Bird In Flight explores how to measure the time left before disaster and why it seems closer now than it was in the previous 50+ years.
Lyrics from physicists
The Doomsday Clock is a metaphor coined in 1947 by physicists who created the world's first atomic bomb. They believed that the inevitable invention and testing of nuclear weapons brought humanity closer to the apocalypse, and they were looking for an opportunity to convey this idea to all people.
Physicists decided to dedicate the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists to this topic - initially it was a small brochure for everyone interested in the topic of nuclear energy and physics, but in 1947 the editors decided to publish a real journal.
The Doomsday Clock was designed for the cover of the first issue by Martil Langsdorff, the wife of atomic bomb co-inventor Alexander Langsdorff, who worked as an artist on the bulletin's editorial board. Martil set her clock to seven minutes to midnight because "it looked good to her" like that. The proximity to midnight reflected the fears of scientists about the approach of disaster.
The clock has become a recognizable symbol. Over time, journalists began to follow the translation of the arrows, and this event turned into news for the whole world.
At the same time, in the physical sense, there are no Doomsday Clocks, their hands move only on the covers of the bulletin and on a special website where you can track the entire history of approaching the catastrophe and moving away from it.
At first, the position of the arrows was determined by the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - physicist Yevgeny Rabinovich, one of the leaders of the world movement for disarmament. He constantly consulted with fellow scientists and members of the governments of the USA and the USSR, which helped him to be objective.
After the death of Rabinovich in 1973, the decision on the transfer of arrows is made by the Council for Science and Security, which includes the authors of the journal, and 15 Nobel laureates. Council members meet twice a year and discuss world events in order to decide on the transfer of arrows.
What time is it now
For the first 60 years since its inception, the hands of the Doomsday Clock were moved only because of the threats posed by nuclear weapons.
In 2007, scientists moved the arrows for the first time due to global climate change. From that moment, experts began to monitor climate threats, and later - cybernetic and others. For example, in 2016, scientists were alarmed by the spread of fake news, but they decided that the threat was not enough to move the arrows.
In total, since 1947, the arrows have been moved 22 times.
Closest to midnight, the shooters were in 1953 in response to the first tests in the USSR and the USA of thermonuclear weapons. Then the Doomsday Clock began to show two minutes to midnight, and this situation persisted until 1960.
Humanity has been furthest from the end of the world for four years since 1991, when the Cold War ended and the USSR and the United States signed a strategic arms reduction treaty. Scientists set the clock to 23:43.
One of the most intense moments recent history- Caribbean crisis - did not affect the course of the clock. The Council explained this by the fact that the crisis lasted only 38 days and scientists did not have enough time to assess its threat to humanity.
On January 26, 2017, scientists moved the hands forward half a minute for three reasons: because global warming, the inaction of world leaders regarding global threats and because of Donald Trump's statements about the prospects for the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons. Now it's two and a half minutes before the apocalypse - less was only in the 1950s.
Until 2017, the clock had never been moved by less than a minute. The half-hearted decision is due to the fact that the authors are not yet able to assess the activities of Donald Trump, since he only recently took office as President of the United States. But, according to scientists, the statements of the new US leader about the possibility of using nuclear weapons should not go unnoticed.
cultural footprint
Martil Langsdorff created a symbol that quickly permeated culture and came to symbolize the fickleness and fragility of the world. Poets, artists and directors have repeatedly used references to this image in their works.
In 1977, the Doomsday Clock became the core of the detective story "The Pretender" by writer Ellen McCloy, who became famous as the author of a series of popular detective stories about Dr. Basil Willing.
In the 80s, scientists several times moved the arrows closer to midnight due to the escalation of the arms race between the US and the USSR. Because of this, in the culture of the 80s you can find different references to the Doomsday Clock and to the theme of the apocalypse. In 1980, The Clash wrote The Call Up, in which they sing that it is already 11:55 on the Doomsday Clock, mentioning the nuclear disaster and other social problems in America at that time. And the musicians of Iron Maiden in 1984 performed the hit "Two Minutes to Midnight", which was dedicated to the events of 1953, when the world was on the brink of nuclear war - then the Doomsday Clock really showed 23:58.
On January 30, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg disagreed with scientists' decision to move the Doomsday Clock forward 30 seconds. In an interview with the BBC, he said that NATO does not see the threat of a global war.
Politicians and scientists are arguing again, but nothing changes for us - we can still only try to delay the Day of Judgment with the usual things: sorting garbage, turning off the car idling, monitoring the actions of governments and not remaining indifferent to global threats.